We were very pleased to welcome Professor Tim Lenton to present an illustrated talk on protecting our future from climate change on 18th July 2016 at Kingsmead School. There was a good turnout with an audience of just under 100.
Tim Lenton is Professor of Earth System Science and Climate Change at the University of Exeter. His talk covered the 2015 United Nations Summit, tipping points and the urgent need for more action to reduce climate change.
Click on the following links to download Tim’s excellent presentation:
- Selected slides with explanatory notes (42 slides, 6.2 MB, PDF)
- Full set of slides (58 slides, 6.1 MB, PDF)
Tim has a great depth of knowledge on climate change, which he frankly shared, giving us much to think about.
Conclusions of his presentation were:
- There is a cap of future (cumulative) emissions to meet any climate target.
- Current emissions leads to 2°C increase in the global average temperature within the next 20-30 years (likely).
- Current declared contributions from the world’s countries are not sufficient to keep within the 2°C target …
… unless massive carbon dioxide removal is implement later (overshoot).
- If business-as-usual continues then climate tipping points are expected to become high impact high probability events.
- Early warning methods exist for tipping points and have been successfully tested against past climate data and models, but will require advances in past climate reconstruction as well as contemporary climate monitoring.
- A climate tipping point early warning system could reduce the risk they pose by helping us adapt in advance if not avoid them.
- The threat of multiple, interacting, uncertain climate tipping points should be triggering strong mitigation activity now to reduce their likelihood.
- The optimal policy response from a standard cost-benefit model with a realistic specification of risk aversion is a carbon price today of >$500 per tonne of carbon.
Pricing the carbon content of fossil fuels would encourage changes in economic behaviour. It would create a financial incentive to reduce our use of fossil fuels and use alternatives instead, such as renewable energy. Tim also said some future carbon capture and storage would be needed (suggesting the use of bioenergy from crops and wastes) and that it would help to source and use food more efficiently, including by reducing meat consumption.
This meeting was jointly promoted by Transition Athelney, Transition Minehead & Alcombe, Quantock Eco, Somerset Energy and Environment Network, Sustainable Villages Initiative, Taunton Transition Town, Forum 21, Transition Town Wellington and Wivey Action on Climate.